Valdez labored through six-plus, allowing four runs on nine hits, a test of his veteran resilience against Baltimore’s lineup. The Astros’ ace fought through traffic, with Houston’s offense stalling at key moments as Young’s pace and command surged.

Valdez has a track record of strong home performances, with a tendency to limit opposition offenses and log outs efficiently. He's a stable anchor in a series opener that historically leans in the home team’s favor, which makes his Under on Outs a plausible leverage play when paired with Astros' moneyline pressure and Pena’s offense.

Valdez at 9,900 is the slate’s top payup, but recent trend lines show a dip in strikeouts and a couple rough outings. His home splits are strong (1.65 ERA at home), and the matchup vs Baltimore offers a favorable lefty-heavy lineup with limited K-rate against southpaws, making him a solid if high-variance anchor with a path to win and volume if everything aligns.

Valdez anchors the pitching plan as a run-prevention specialist with a high ground-ball rate and strong ERA profile, a solid cash-game floor with upside against the Orioles' right-handed heavy lineup, which struggles versus lefties and grounders. He’s a top anchor on DraftKings and FanDuel, offering a safe path to points through innings, wins, and quality starts.

Valdez anchors Houston’s rotation with a strong home track record, carrying a 11-5, 2.97 ERA line this season. He’s a primary driver of Houston’s favorable run-line trends at home, though a rough stretch recently approaching 9 earned runs in 11.2 innings has Baltimore’s lineup eyeing opportunities.